Estimación Bayesiana de parámetros en un modelo para la dinámica de infección del VISH - KS661 in vitro

Abstract

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 (HIV-1) is one of the causes of AIDS. HIV-1 causes the majority of HIV infections around the world. The development and use of mathematical models to quantitatively understand the kinetics of HIV-1 has proved to be a useful tool for determining the pathogenesis and transmissibility of this virus, predicting the course of the disease and evaluating the efects of antiviral therapy. In view of the limitations of direct studies to investigate the pathogenicity of HIV-1 in vivo the models have been used to explain the dynamics of the Simian/Human mmunode¿ciency Virus (SHIV) in vitro. The study of SHIV KS661 (highly pathogenic SHIV strains) provides important information for the understanding of the pathogenesis of HIV-1. The goals of this work are: 1) to estimate the parameters using Bayesian approach of an viral dynamics model to experimental data of SHIV-KS661 in vitro; 2) estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection, using the a posteriori distribution of the parameters of interest; 3) estimate relevant amounts of viral kinetics as: average life of the infected cells, burtst size of the total and infectious viral particles. In order to ful ll the aforementioned objectives, we used the data from cell cultures on the infection of HSC-F cells with SHIV-KS661 in vitro obtained in Iwami et al. (2012), and as well a viral dynamics model, which describes the CD4+ T cells, infected cells, non-infectious virus and infectious virus. For the estimation of the parameters, we computed the a posteriori distribution using MCMC methods. Finally estimate the mean and credible intervals of the parameters.