Estimación bayesiana de los parámetros en dos sistemas dinámicos que describen la transmisión de la enfermedad del dengue

Abstract

Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by the female mosquito of the Aedes aegypti. This disease is distributed in countries of Africa, Asia, Oceania and America, where geographic, demographic and epidemiological conditions are favorable for: the vector, the virus and the host. For the study of the virus dynamics, the mechanisms involved in the transmission of virus between hosts and vectors, mathematical models have been proposed in the language of ordinary di_erential equations. To estimate the parameters of these models, the least squares method has been used in a number of situations.